XRP to revisit its $1 ‘realized price’? These charts paint a bearish picture

XRP (XRP) has bounced nearly 30% after a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals now point to a deeper correction ahead.

XRP cup-and-handle pattern hints at 40% drop

XRP is forming a classic bearish reversal pattern that could see its price falling by at least 40% in the coming weeks.

Dubbed inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H), the pattern forms when the price rounds off in a curved descent (cup) followed by a brief consolidation phase (handle) — all atop a common neckline support level.

The pattern is confirmed by a breakdown stage, where the price breaks decisively below support and falls by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.

As of April 19, XRP had entered the pattern’s handle-formation phase, eyeing a decisive close below the neckline support at around $2. In this case, the primary downside target will likely be around $1.24, almost 40% below current prices.

The IC&H target aligns with XRP’s 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at around $1.28 — and further coincides with a November 2024 top.

Additionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that XRP’s market cap could drop by 50% in the coming weeks.

XRP onchain fractal hints at 50% correction

XRP’s inverse cup-and-handle pattern is unfolding in line with its historical price behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally may have topped out.

For instance, the cryptocurrency saw sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price following major surges in previous cycles, most notably in 2018 and 2021.

For traders, the realized price serves as a psychological benchmark, representing the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved.

When the market price trades well above this level, most holders are in profit, which can encourage complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the price nears the realized price, fear of losses tends to rise, and selling pressure can intensify.

In 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 before losing steam, repeating patterns seen in past bull-to-bear cycles. The current realized price at around $1, a likely downside target in 2025 down about 50% from the current prices.

Interestingly, XRP’s $1 realized price target is closer to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below) at $0.81, a bear market target discussed in Cointelegraph’s analysis in late March.

Adding to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are currently in profit. The metric historically reached similar levels during previous market tops, often preceding significant rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks.

Related: 81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish — Here is why

If history repeats, such similar conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP’s retracement toward the realized price.

Odds of XRP hitting record highs are declining

Sentiment around XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction market data from Polymarket.

As of April 19, the odds of XRP achieving this milestone before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence levels in March, as shown below.

The upside momentum in the crypto market has faded overall in April, coinciding with a broader decline in risk appetite driven by escalating global tariff tensions under Donald Trump’s trade policies.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.