The current BTC ‘bear market’ will only last 90 days — Analyst

The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, defined as a 20% or more drop from the all-time high, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last for 90 days, according to market analyst and the author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, Timothy Peterson.
Peterson compared the current downturn to the 10 previous bear markets, which occur roughly once per year, and said that only four bear markets have been worse than the price decline in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.
The analyst predicted that BTC will not sink deeply below the $50,000 price level due to the underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also argued that based on momentum, it is unlikely that BTC will break below $80,000. The analyst added:
“There may be a slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15. You can see that in the charts around day 120. This would probably be enough of a headline to bring weak hands back into the market and propel Bitcoin even higher.”
Crypto markets experienced a sharp downturn following United States President Trump’s tariffs on several US trading partners, which sparked counter-tariffs on US exports, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war.
Comparison of every bear market since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson
Related: Is Bitcoin going to $65K? Traders explain why they’re still bearish
Investors flee risk-on assets over trade war fears
Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining due to the ongoing trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, a measure of BTC owned for one week or less, declined from 5.9% amid the historic bull rally in November 2024 to only 2.3% as of March 20.
According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will face trade war pressures until April 2025, when international negotiations could potentially lower or diffuse the trade tariffs altogether.
A recent analysis from CryptoQuant also shows that a majority of retail traders are already invested in BTC, dashing long-held hopes that a massive rush of retail traders would inject fresh capital into the markets and push prices higher in the near term. The trade war also placed Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative in doubt as the price of the decentralized asset collapsed over tariff headlines alongside other risk and speculative assets. Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 108,150.00
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,514.76
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
XRP (XRP) $ 2.22
BNB (BNB) $ 655.00
Solana (SOL) $ 147.94
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999860
TRON (TRX) $ 0.284300
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.163855
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,513.12
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.573210
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 108,037.00
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 39.46
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,035.67
Sui (SUI) $ 2.90
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 483.24
Chainlink (LINK) $ 13.16
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.02
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 17.85
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999730
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.237110
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,693.72
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.74
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000011
WETH (WETH) $ 2,514.25
Litecoin (LTC) $ 86.51
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 45.72
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.154740
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.999907
Monero (XMR) $ 312.21
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 108,149.00
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.39
Polkadot (DOT) $ 3.35
Uniswap (UNI) $ 6.95
Aave (AAVE) $ 271.28
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000010
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999967
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.458549
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.18
OKB (OKB) $ 48.81
Bittensor (TAO) $ 321.88
Aptos (APT) $ 4.42
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 179.63
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.13
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 4.74
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.080963
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 16.28
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.774559
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.06
USD1 (USD1) $ 0.999536
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.075263
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 4.44
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.568199
Gate (GT) $ 15.22
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.00
VeChain (VET) $ 0.020673
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.668630
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 8.57
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 108,181.00
Tokenize Xchange (TKX) $ 21.10
Sky (SKY) $ 0.076758
Render (RENDER) $ 3.14
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.180350
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.323834
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.252730
Quant (QNT) $ 107.02
Filecoin (FIL) $ 2.24
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 2,514.67
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 4.45
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.173726
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 0.869973
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.997733
USDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999659
Sei (SEI) $ 0.261442
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000018
KuCoin (KCS) $ 10.97
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 156.81
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 0.999822
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.434840
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.21
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 2,635.23
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 1.18
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 2,863.73
SPX6900 (SPX) $ 1.23
Flare (FLR) $ 0.016658
Polygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) $ 1.00
Celestia (TIA) $ 1.48
Injective (INJ) $ 10.55
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) $ 1.55
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.062255
Binance Bridged USDC (BNB Smart Chain) (USDC) $ 0.999691
Sonic (S) $ 0.308825
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) $ 0.015589
Stacks (STX) $ 0.641186
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 2,686.02
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 2,639.17
SyrupUSDC (SYRUPUSDC) $ 1.11
PAX Gold (PAXG) $ 3,347.73