The current BTC ‘bear market’ will only last 90 days — Analyst

The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, defined as a 20% or more drop from the all-time high, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last for 90 days, according to market analyst and the author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, Timothy Peterson.
Peterson compared the current downturn to the 10 previous bear markets, which occur roughly once per year, and said that only four bear markets have been worse than the price decline in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.
The analyst predicted that BTC will not sink deeply below the $50,000 price level due to the underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also argued that based on momentum, it is unlikely that BTC will break below $80,000. The analyst added:
“There may be a slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15. You can see that in the charts around day 120. This would probably be enough of a headline to bring weak hands back into the market and propel Bitcoin even higher.”
Crypto markets experienced a sharp downturn following United States President Trump’s tariffs on several US trading partners, which sparked counter-tariffs on US exports, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war.
Comparison of every bear market since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson
Related: Is Bitcoin going to $65K? Traders explain why they’re still bearish
Investors flee risk-on assets over trade war fears
Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining due to the ongoing trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, a measure of BTC owned for one week or less, declined from 5.9% amid the historic bull rally in November 2024 to only 2.3% as of March 20.
According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will face trade war pressures until April 2025, when international negotiations could potentially lower or diffuse the trade tariffs altogether.
A recent analysis from CryptoQuant also shows that a majority of retail traders are already invested in BTC, dashing long-held hopes that a massive rush of retail traders would inject fresh capital into the markets and push prices higher in the near term. The trade war also placed Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative in doubt as the price of the decentralized asset collapsed over tariff headlines alongside other risk and speculative assets. Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 117,362.00
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,681.54
XRP (XRP) $ 3.14
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
BNB (BNB) $ 768.37
Solana (SOL) $ 182.79
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999809
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.229538
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,671.46
TRON (TRX) $ 0.314093
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.808060
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 117,215.00
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 4,438.66
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 42.01
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.423871
Sui (SUI) $ 3.69
Chainlink (LINK) $ 17.76
Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH) $ 3,941.97
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 523.88
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,939.53
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.240180
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 23.56
Litecoin (LTC) $ 111.32
LEO Token (LEO) $ 8.99
WETH (WETH) $ 3,678.36
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000014
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.12
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999809
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 43.90
Monero (XMR) $ 333.49
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 117,335.00
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.00
Uniswap (UNI) $ 10.06
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.55
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000012
Aave (AAVE) $ 287.81
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.128450
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.19
Bittensor (TAO) $ 416.39
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999897
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.443319
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 22.20
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.70
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.01
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.482726
Aptos (APT) $ 4.67
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.48
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 223.09
OKB (OKB) $ 47.85
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.098001
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.748665
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000033
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) $ 0.037123
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.259705
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 3,681.48
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.429704
USD1 (USD1) $ 1.00
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.63
VeChain (VET) $ 0.024734
Render (RENDER) $ 4.04
Gate (GT) $ 17.47
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.230247
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 1.13
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 9.99
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 4.50
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.727651
Sei (SEI) $ 0.317820
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 194.47
Filecoin (FIL) $ 2.58
Sky (SKY) $ 0.082464
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 4,192.04
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.06
Quant (QNT) $ 118.94
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 117,151.00
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 3,852.93
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.536855
Flare (FLR) $ 0.022777
SPX6900 (SPX) $ 1.70
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 5.04
KuCoin (KCS) $ 12.06
Story (IP) $ 5.12
USDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999653
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.998348
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 3,867.54
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 3,934.81
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.084099
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 1.00
Liquid Staked ETH (LSETH) $ 3,973.22
Curve DAO (CRV) $ 0.964534
Celestia (TIA) $ 1.85
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 1.32
Injective (INJ) $ 13.50
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.31
Polygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) $ 1.00
Renzo Restaked ETH (EZETH) $ 3,870.54
Stacks (STX) $ 0.774487
Optimism (OP) $ 0.689468