S&P 500 to end 2025 up 9% from here, but Trump-related uncertainties mount: Reuters poll

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The S&P 500 will finish 2025 up about 9% from now, but volatility will likely increase as a barrage of tariff announcements, job cuts and policy changes from President Donald Trump fuels uncertainty, according to equity strategists in a Reuters poll.

The year-end target of 6,500 for the benchmark S&P 500, the median forecast of 54 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected February 13-25 is unchanged from a Reuters equity poll in November.

That is 9% above Tuesday’s close of 5,955.25.

The index is up 1.3% so far in 2025 following two straight years of gains exceeding 20%, helped largely by gains in megacap tech companies like Nvidia dominating the race for artificial intelligence technology.

Strategists said they expect solid corporate earnings growth to continue to support gains in equities and they see a possible boost to the economy if Trump, who took office on January 20, goes ahead with his pro-growth agenda for tax cuts and deregulation.

But they say tariffs threaten to add inflationary pressures at a time when the Federal Reserve has paused its rate-cutting cycle.

“The economy is growing, inflation has been sticky but it’s much lower than it was just six months or a year ago, and corporate profits are growing,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan, which has a 6,500 “base case” year-end forecast for the S&P 500.

“What could derail some of that are the tariffs. That, to us, is the biggest known unknown for markets and investors,” he said, noting that for now investors may be viewing the tariff announcements as “a negotiating tactic.”

Trump has rolled out a new 10% levy on all Chinese imports and announced tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports.

He said on Monday his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada were still set to start next week, and has said he plans to introduce 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports.

More recently, worries about a slowdown have emerged. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated at its sharpest pace in 3-1/2 years in February while 12-month inflation expectations jumped.

Also, thousands of U.S. government workers have been fired in recent weeks as part of Trump’s plan to reduce the federal workforce, although those losses have mostly not appeared yet in formal measures of the U.S. job market.

The cuts are being carried out under the direction of Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.