Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Over? What Past Data Reveals

With Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent slowdown, market participants wonder if the price has reached its peak. Historical data, however, provides valuable insights into identifying potential market tops. On-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock shared recent insights that attempted to answer whether the market peak is in, citing historical and stablecoin data.

According to IntoTheBlock, when looking at historical halving data, peaks often land 12-18 months post-halving, pointing to mid-to-late 2025. It went on to say that while institutional flows and regulations may reshape this cycle, it is likely there is more time in the current cycle.

Stablecoin data also paints a similar narrative. In a March 14 tweet, IntoTheBlock indicated that stablecoin data might suggest that the market peak might not yet be in. This is as, historically, stablecoin supply peaks align with cycle highs.

Related

In April 2022, supply hit $187 billion — just as the bear market started. Now it is at $219 billion and still rising, suggesting the market likely remains in mid-cycle.

Stablecoins continue to gain ground amid market uncertainty, pushing their combined market cap to around $219 billion this week. This is about $10 billion away from Ethereum’s market cap, a strong indicator of rising caution on the market.

Bitcoin price action

Bitcoin continues to face persistent sell pressure, especially from recent buyers. Since January, the crypto asset has seen weak demand and fading accumulation.

Related

Bitcoin fell to a low of $76,555 on March 11, its lowest level since November 2024. That was around a 30% drop from the all-time high of $109,114 set on Jan. 20, 2025. The drop contributed to unprecedented outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and huge liquidations of long positions on cryptocurrency futures markets. Bitcoin options traders were bracing for a dip to $70,000 in late February.

Bitcoin rebounded from this four-month low, with other risky assets bouncing back from the recent turmoil on the global markets. Bitcoin reached a high of $85,301 on Friday before encountering resistance and retreating.

At press time, Bitcoin was down 1.69% in the last 24 hours to $82,864 and 0.67% weekly. Bitcoin is facing current resistance at the daily SMA 200 at $83,984.