Ethereum’s ‘capitulation’ suggests ETH price is undervalued: Fidelity report

Key Takeaways:
-
Fidelity Digital Assets’ report said that multiple Ethereum onchain metrics suggest ETH trades at a discount.
-
The BTC/ETH market cap ratio is at mid-2020 levels.
-
Ethereum’s layer-2 active addresses hit new highs at 13.6 million.
Fresh data from Fidelity Digital Assets hints at a cautiously optimistic outlook for Ethereum, suggesting its dismal Q1 performance could be an opportunity. According to their latest Signals Report, Ether (ETH) dipped 45% during Q1, wiping out it post-US election gains after peaking at $3,579 in January.
The altcoin posted a death cross in March, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) dipping 21% below the 200-day SMA, reflecting bearish momentum. Yet, Fidelity noted that the short-term pain may swing in the altcoin’s favor.
The investment firm pointed out that the MVRV Z-Score, which compares market value to realized value, dropped to -0.18, entering the “undervalued” zone on March 9. Historically, such levels have marked market bottoms, indicating that Ether “was looking cheap” compared to its “fair value.” The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio also fell to 0, indicating “capitulation,” where unrealized profits equal losses, citing a neutral spot for holders.
ETH’s realized price, averaging $2,020, sits 10% above its current value, showing holders face unrealized losses. While this trend is bearish, the firm noted that a minor 3% drop in realized price versus a 45% decline suggests short-term holders sold off, while long-term holders held firm, possibly stabilizing the base price.
However, the company highlighted that in 2022, despite ETH price dipping below the realized price, it continued to decline further before recovery.
Fidelity also cited Ethereum’s market cap ratio to Bitcoin at 0.13, sitting at mid-2020 levels, and in a decline for 30 months.
Related: Ethereum price has several reasons to break $2,000 next
Ethereum ecosystem engagement records fresh highs
Data from growthepie.xyz indicated that the number of unique addresses interacting with one or two layer 2 networks in the Ethereum ecosystem reached a new all-time high of 13.6 million active addresses. The rate of active addresses is up 74% over the past week, implying the network’s scalability prowess and growing adoption.
Unichain, a new layer-2 protocol by Uniswap, led the charge with over 5.82 million weekly active addresses, surpassing Base and Arbitrum. The collective increase in active addresses improved Ethereum’s layer-2 dominance by 58.74% in the past seven days.
Anonymous crypto trader CRG noted that ETH price recovered a position above the 12-hour Ichimoku cloud indicator for the first time since December 2024. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates an uptrend when the price is above the cloud and the cloud turns green, indicating bullish sentiment.
Related: Global central bank gold rush could spark Bitcoin price run to new all-time highs
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 116,908.00
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,945.66
XRP (XRP) $ 2.83
Tether (USDT) $ 0.999977
BNB (BNB) $ 678.75
Solana (SOL) $ 159.10
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999901
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.189689
TRON (TRX) $ 0.299926
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,943.88
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.715494
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 47.07
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 116,438.00
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.439642
Sui (SUI) $ 3.87
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,552.67
Chainlink (LINK) $ 15.22
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.230788
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 490.68
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 20.51
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.01
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,151.12
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000013
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.98
WETH (WETH) $ 2,938.26
Litecoin (LTC) $ 91.69
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999845
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 45.51
Monero (XMR) $ 334.38
Polkadot (DOT) $ 3.82
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 116,728.00
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 0.999272
Uniswap (UNI) $ 8.74
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.33
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000012
Aave (AAVE) $ 307.38
Bittensor (TAO) $ 405.04
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.450324
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.103483
Aptos (APT) $ 4.83
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.18
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.51
OKB (OKB) $ 47.25
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.886371
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.23
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 192.87
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 17.89
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.712704
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.279329
USD1 (USD1) $ 1.00
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.082970
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000028
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.323353
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.46
VeChain (VET) $ 0.023518
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.220311
Pump.fun (PUMP) $ 0.005609
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.06
Sei (SEI) $ 0.337356
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.393568
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 4.50
Render (RENDER) $ 3.65
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) $ 0.030041
Gate (GT) $ 15.60
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 9.10
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.687103
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 2,948.21
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 1.01
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 117,211.00
Filecoin (FIL) $ 2.48
Sky (SKY) $ 0.075689
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 168.85
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 4.69
KuCoin (KCS) $ 11.43
USDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999856
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.996375
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.476730
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 3,084.11
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 3,351.55
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 0.999529
SPX6900 (SPX) $ 1.46
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.29
Celestia (TIA) $ 1.81
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 1.25
Story (IP) $ 4.22
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.071238
Flare (FLR) $ 0.017055
Injective (INJ) $ 12.07
Stacks (STX) $ 0.761832
Optimism (OP) $ 0.638499
Solv Protocol BTC (SOLVBTC) $ 116,969.00
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 3,127.72
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 3,090.31
Polygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) $ 1.00
Sonic (S) $ 0.336777
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) $ 1.60
Binance Bridged USDC (BNB Smart Chain) (USDC) $ 1.00