Bitcoin trades at ‘40% discount’ as spot BTC ETF buying soars to $3B in one week

Key takeaways:
-
Data suggests that Bitcoin currently trades at a 40% discount.
-
Over 36,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from Coinbase and Binance on April 25.
-
Bitcoin’s fractal pattern from Q4 2024 could propel prices above $100,000 in April.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.
In a recent post on X, Edwards highlighted that since the April 2024 halving, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s energy value—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—stands at $130,000.
Recent data from CryptoQuant indicated that over 8,756 BTC ($830 million) were withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24. Negative netflows from Coinbase could point toward institutional buying, or ETF-related purchases reflecting underlying demand.
This development lines up with the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows witnessed this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that institutions went on a $3 billion ‘Bitcoin bender’ over the past few days.
Binance also witnessed exchange outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted that “this is the third largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history.” Although large outflows and positive price action suggest bullish tailwinds, Wedson said they do not automatically mean a continued rally. The analyst said,
“In 2021, massive outflows didn’t prevent the dump triggered by China’s crypto ban (April–May). On the other hand, continuous outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, signaled a bottom and recovery.”
Related: Bitcoin ETFs on $3B ‘bender,’ log first full week of inflows in 5 weeks
Can this Bitcoin fractal push BTC above $100K in April?
Bitcoin’s weekly performance marks its highest return in 2025 and its most significant uptick since November 2024. Besides similar returns, the BTC price also reflects identical price action.
As illustrated in the 1-day chart, Bitcoin is consolidating at a higher range after its breakout, mirroring its behavior from Q4, 2024. (circled). After a 13% rise between Nov. 5-9, BTC posted another 15% increase during Nov. 10-11. The breakout took place during the weekend as well.
Similarly, BTC prices have risen 11% between April 21-25. With the relative strength index (RSI) also exhibiting similar buying pressure, a 7-10% jump over the next few days could take BTC above $100,000.
While fractal patterns may repeat, they aren’t perfectly reliable. Unlike Q4, when Bitcoin entered price discovery and rallied without resistance, the current overhead resistance level at $96,100 could impede a breakout.
Related: Bitcoin spikes to 7-week highs as analyst doubts chances of $100K rebound
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 119,333.00
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,750.57
XRP (XRP) $ 3.25
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
BNB (BNB) $ 783.25
Solana (SOL) $ 189.42
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999906
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.240623
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,746.35
TRON (TRX) $ 0.315589
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.822804
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 119,206.00
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 4,526.84
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 43.03
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.435252
Sui (SUI) $ 3.86
Chainlink (LINK) $ 18.52
Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH) $ 4,025.75
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 4,018.90
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.246253
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 518.74
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 24.25
Litecoin (LTC) $ 113.87
WETH (WETH) $ 3,753.05
LEO Token (LEO) $ 8.97
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000014
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.19
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999844
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 44.53
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 119,429.00
Uniswap (UNI) $ 10.49
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.10
Monero (XMR) $ 323.10
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000013
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.64
Aave (AAVE) $ 293.53
Bittensor (TAO) $ 434.62
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.127193
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.19
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999765
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 22.88
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.80
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.445639
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.07
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.491893
Aptos (APT) $ 4.74
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 231.15
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.63
OKB (OKB) $ 48.59
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.101396
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000034
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.756623
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) $ 0.039331
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.269532
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.442131
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 3,753.26
USD1 (USD1) $ 1.00
VeChain (VET) $ 0.025502
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.74
Render (RENDER) $ 4.19
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.235407
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 1.18
Gate (GT) $ 17.63
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 10.13
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 4.51
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.743662
Sei (SEI) $ 0.329015
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 201.88
Sky (SKY) $ 0.086395
Filecoin (FIL) $ 2.65
SPX6900 (SPX) $ 1.92
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.06
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 4,273.33
Flare (FLR) $ 0.024703
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 119,210.00
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 3,929.63
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.557181
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 5.12
Story (IP) $ 5.27
KuCoin (KCS) $ 12.15
USDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999875
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 1.42
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 3,945.19
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.999491
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.085925
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 4,010.07
Curve DAO (CRV) $ 0.995990
Celestia (TIA) $ 1.90
Liquid Staked ETH (LSETH) $ 4,054.21
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 1.00
Injective (INJ) $ 13.95
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.32
Polygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) $ 1.00
Stacks (STX) $ 0.806373
Renzo Restaked ETH (EZETH) $ 3,947.18
FLOKI (FLOKI) $ 0.000130
Optimism (OP) $ 0.716368