Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street’s $13T wipeout

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s breaks below key gold support

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

For instance, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

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This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

That is in contrast to the ongoing decoupling narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC vs gold breakdowns are historically bearish

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

The pattern also repeated in earlier cycles, namely the 2019-2020 and 2018-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.