Bitcoin price pullback to $91K possible, but onchain data highlights ‘healthy’ market fundamentals

Key Takeaways:
-
Bitcoin’s year-over-year return and realized price metric signal strong long-term support from holders and suggest that BTC is currently undervalued.
-
Standard Chartered estimates a Bitcoin price target in the $110,000–$120,000 zone by Q2 2025.
-
Positive funding rates point to a potential long squeeze to $90,500.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly close near $94,000 delivered an impressive year-over-year total return of 53.61%. Since the last halving in 2024, the market has shifted from the early 2024 euphoric phase to a “mature bull trend” based on onchain growth, rather than speculative frenzy.
Bitcoin fundamentals triumph over fear and speculation
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the year-on-year (YoY) realized price, a measure of the average price at which BTC was last moved, has surged 61.82%, outperforming the YoY market value to realized value’s (MVRV) decline of 8.98%. This indicates long-term holders are raising the base price faster than speculative price increases, a healthy signal for the cycle.
The negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value compared to a year ago, a pattern that precedes significant rallies. This compression of value leaves room for further upside, with analysts eyeing new highs above $110,000 if demand accelerates.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s realized price by cohort shows a cooling speculative premium, as one-month holders’ cost basis is 5% below the six-month cohort. The current market resembles past accumulation phases, leaving only five to six weeks until the average 180-day point when momentum often accelerates.
This bullish timeline parallels Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick’s prediction that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic reallocation from US assets. Kendrick noted that a high US Treasury term premium, correlating with BTC’s price, and time-of-day trading patterns indicate US investors are seeking non-US assets since President Donald Trump’s trade war began on April 2.
Related: Bitcoin could hit $210K in 2025, says Presto research head
Bitcoin futures market hints at “long squeeze” below $91,000
Bitcoin’s funding rate has turned positive, signaling a dominance of long positions as traders bet on price rises above $90,000. Between April 24 and April 25, Bitcoin’s funding rate briefly turned negative, sparking discussions of a potential long squeeze that could push prices toward $97,000. However, the market dynamics shifted with the funding rate flipping positive, which could lead to a long squeeze.
A Long squeeze is a market event where a sudden price drop forces over-leveraged long traders to sell, amplifying the decline through mass liquidations.
Bitcoin prices have dropped 1.58% after the New York market session opened on April 28, and BTC might drop as low as $90,500 over the next few days.
As illustrated in the chart, bullish momentum is beginning to fade, and BTC could re-test the fair-value gap (FVG) between $90,500 and 88,750 on the 4-hour chart.
The price also formed a bearish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) after the price failed to hold a position above $95,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 118,270.00
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,825.52
XRP (XRP) $ 3.21
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
BNB (BNB) $ 798.61
Solana (SOL) $ 188.19
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999857
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.238992
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,831.19
TRON (TRX) $ 0.321827
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.828758
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 118,229.00
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 4,619.41
Sui (SUI) $ 4.24
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 43.06
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.440252
Chainlink (LINK) $ 18.93
Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH) $ 4,103.37
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.284978
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 591.90
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 4,098.88
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 25.08
WETH (WETH) $ 3,819.67
Litecoin (LTC) $ 113.61
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000014
LEO Token (LEO) $ 8.98
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.29
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999903
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.999802
Uniswap (UNI) $ 10.73
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 44.33
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.18
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 118,036.00
Monero (XMR) $ 324.68
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000013
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.60
Aave (AAVE) $ 298.41
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.140060
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.19
Bittensor (TAO) $ 428.17
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.620232
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999960
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.93
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 22.85
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.443298
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.05
Aptos (APT) $ 4.83
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.73
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 229.34
OKB (OKB) $ 48.17
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.814699
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.104976
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000035
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) $ 0.042355
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.280810
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.456593
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 3,827.81
VeChain (VET) $ 0.025972
Render (RENDER) $ 4.30
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.81
USD1 (USD1) $ 1.00
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.239465
Gate (GT) $ 17.84
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 1.18
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 10.19
Sky (SKY) $ 0.095623
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 4.59
Sei (SEI) $ 0.341669
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.738826
SPX6900 (SPX) $ 2.03
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 199.96
Quant (QNT) $ 127.18
Filecoin (FIL) $ 2.71
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 4,363.38
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.592019
Flare (FLR) $ 0.024482
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 4,023.26
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 118,076.00
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.06
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 5.11
Story (IP) $ 5.47
Injective (INJ) $ 15.32
Curve DAO (CRV) $ 1.08
KuCoin (KCS) $ 11.52
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.090287
USDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999906
Celestia (TIA) $ 2.01
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 4,033.67
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 4,090.19
Liquid Staked ETH (LSETH) $ 4,134.16
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 0.998958
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.998518
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 1.34
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.31
Stacks (STX) $ 0.818343
Optimism (OP) $ 0.732823
Renzo Restaked ETH (EZETH) $ 4,026.29
FLOKI (FLOKI) $ 0.000132