Bitcoin hodler unrealized profits near 350% as $100K risks sell-off

Key points:

• Bitcoin long-term holders are about to hit a level of unrealized profit, which has traditionally caused them to sell.

• That level coincides with the return to a six-figure BTC price.

• Order book data suggests that bulls may not succeed in keeping the upside going.

Bitcoin (BTC) risks a “notable increase” in selling from its older investors if price rises further, warns onchain analytics firm Glassnode.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” researchers calculated that long-term holders (LTHs) are sitting on almost 350% unrealized profits.

Bitcoin sell-side odds in line for crucial test

Bitcoin at multimonth highs will tempt an increasing number of hodlers to take profits — including so-called “diamond hands.”

Using a variety of metrics to track investor profitability, Glassnode shows that aggregate LTH unrealized profits are now nearing 350% — a key historical level.

“Having established that the LTH cohort is expressing a preference to hold onto their supply, we can attempt to quantify the potential price levels required to entice them to part with their coins, and commence the next wave of profit taking,” it explains.

LTH refers to entities holding BTC for more than six months. For Glassnode, the key price area to watch for changes in their behavior is the $100,000 zone.

“Historically speaking, the Long-Term Holder cohort typically ramps up their spending pressure when the average member is holding a +350% unrealized profit margin,” it explains.

“Reconciling this information with the spot price, the average LTH is expected to hit a 350% profit margin at the $99.9k level. As such, we can anticipate an uptick in sell-side pressure as the market approaches this zone, making it an area that will likely require substantial buy-side demand to absorb the distribution, and sustain upwards momentum.”

Trader: BTC price upside potential “looks thin”

BTC/USD reached $97,500 this week before cooling off — its highest since Feb. 21, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Related: Bitcoin eyes gains as macro data makes US recession 2025 ‘base case’

While more than $20,000 above its recent lows, Bitcoin is not yet convincing traders that it can return to classic bull market behavior.

Popular trader TheKingfisher pointed to order book liquidity as one sign that sellers may take revenge on the recovery.

“Massive wall of LONG liquidations stacked up under ~$91k. Shorts above current price ($96.6k)? Barely anything significant,” he wrote in part of an X post on May 1.

“Huge imbalance suggests potential downside magnet is strong. High risk for longs near current levels. Upside fuel looks thin for now.”

Glassnode also acknowledged the need to demonstrate key resistance/support flips, referencing the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) and the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin speculators, known as short-term holders (STHs).

“The price has recently surged above both of these pricing models, and is now attempting to consolidate within this zone. This highlights a noteworthy degree of strength behind this upwards swing,” it commented. 

“However, these are levels that must be broken and held for further price appreciation, as a rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory, and return many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.