Betting markets’ Q1 US GDP forecast flips negative amid tariff turmoil

Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release.
The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.
The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly favorable outlook.
The shift comes one day after Canada, America’s second-largest trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more hawkish stance in Canada’s ongoing trade war with the US.
Related: Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data
The markets are pegged to the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which issues official measures of America’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The report will provide the clearest view yet into the impact of US President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies.
Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
In 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s election win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Tariff turmoil
On April 2, Trump announced plans to place sweeping tariffs on US imports. The president has since paused the rollout of tariffs on certain countries, but the prospect of a global trade war still looms.
The macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data.
In April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index — a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers — reported the sharpest declines in activity since 2020.
Analysts said factories are bracing for the impact of Trump’s tariff plans, which could potentially raise production costs for manufacturers.
Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 105,137.00
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,518.58
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
XRP (XRP) $ 2.14
BNB (BNB) $ 641.80
Solana (SOL) $ 143.73
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999771
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.177423
TRON (TRX) $ 0.270376
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,517.73
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.622618
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 105,020.00
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 39.61
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,035.73
Sui (SUI) $ 2.90
Chainlink (LINK) $ 13.14
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 425.31
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.08
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 18.99
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.255492
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.95
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999667
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000012
WETH (WETH) $ 2,518.18
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,692.48
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.153674
Litecoin (LTC) $ 85.14
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.999591
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
Monero (XMR) $ 311.93
Polkadot (DOT) $ 3.77
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 39.49
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.52
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 105,080.00
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000011
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.604672
Uniswap (UNI) $ 7.25
Aave (AAVE) $ 276.29
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999498
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.18
Bittensor (TAO) $ 362.26
OKB (OKB) $ 51.47
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.48
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
Aptos (APT) $ 4.45
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.090607
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.21
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 16.63
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 173.65
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.780834
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.06
Tokenize Xchange (TKX) $ 28.55
USD1 (USD1) $ 1.00
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.636453
Gate (GT) $ 16.76
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 10.00
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.073417
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 4.44
VeChain (VET) $ 0.022038
Sky (SKY) $ 0.087444
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.09
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 104,688.00
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.198372
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.291987
Render (RENDER) $ 3.36
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.662484
Filecoin (FIL) $ 2.42
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.333244
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 0.971938
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 1.00
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.176519
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 2,515.80
Quant (QNT) $ 103.76
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.998799
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 4.35
USDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999797
KuCoin (KCS) $ 11.22
SPX6900 (SPX) $ 1.38
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 151.29
Flare (FLR) $ 0.018312
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.21
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.408431
Celestia (TIA) $ 1.79
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 2,868.90
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) $ 1.79
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 2,637.36
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 1.15
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000015
Injective (INJ) $ 11.42
Sonic (S) $ 0.335579
Story (IP) $ 3.59
Optimism (OP) $ 0.595645
Polygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) $ 1.00
Binance Bridged USDC (BNB Smart Chain) (USDC) $ 0.999070
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.059990
PayPal USD (PYUSD) $ 1.00
Stacks (STX) $ 0.624425
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 2,690.14
Sei (SEI) $ 0.174776
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 2,645.84