Altcoin unit bias ‘absolutely destroying’ crypto newbies — Samson Mow

Jan3 CEO Samson Mow says that Bitcoin dominance hasn’t yet exhausted its upside trajectory after analyzing how altcoin prices would stack up against Bitcoin if all were on equal terms of total supply.

His forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance to rise further comes as the ratio has already exceeded the levels many crypto analysts expected it would reach by late 2024.

“Unit bias is absolutely destroying the uninitiated,” Mow said in an April 19 X post. Mow suggested that unit bias — a psychological method in behavioral economics that suggests that individuals usually like to own a complete unit or stock regardless of its price and size — often causes less experienced investors to assume cheaper whole altcoins are better value than owning part of a Bitcoin.

Mow questions altcoin valuations on level playing field

“You can buy one twenty-one millionth of the BTC supply for ~$85,000,” Mow said. He asked, “What happens if you remove unit bias from alts to calculate the equivalent of 1/21 million?”

He pointed out that Ether (ETH) would be priced at $9,200, XRP (XRP) would be priced at $5,800, and Solana (SOL) would be priced at $3,400 — representing increases of approximately 278,746%, 470%, and 2,328%, respectively, from their prices at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.

“No way these alts are worth that much,” Mow said. 

Sunny Po, an anonymous Bitcoin proponent, said on Jan. 12 that “Unit bias is a core foundational framework of the normie mind. ‘Cheaper better.’”

Mow said that “most” altcoins take advantage of unit bias by implementing a very high total supply so market participants “can’t figure out what they’re buying.”

Related: XRP: Why it’s outperforming altcoins — and what comes next

Based on his calculations, Mow said Bitcoin dominance is going “so much higher.” Bitcoin dominance — a metric that reflects Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization — is often used by traders to gauge when Bitcoin might be nearing a price peak. 

Historically, when Bitcoin Dominance declines, it often signals the start of altcoin season, with capital flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins to find higher returns.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin Dominance is sitting at 63.66%, as per TradingView data.

Several crypto analysts were forecasting Bitcoin Dominance to top out at 60% in late 2024 before the beginning of an altcoin season.

In August 2024, Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen said “I don’t think it is going back up to 70%, my target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%.”

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19