Norway’s sovereign wealth fund lost $40B in Q1— Will it hedge risk by increasing Bitcoin exposure?

Key takeaways:

• Norges Bank lost $40 billion in Q1 2025 as US tech stocks fell, exposing the risk of concentrated positions.

• The bank’s indirect Bitcoin exposure via stocks reached $356 million, raising sell pressure risk amid a global trade war and recession concerns.

• Abu Dhabi’s $437 million spot Bitcoin ETF stake shows sovereign wealth funds see Bitcoin as a hedge.

Norges Bank, Norway’s $1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund, reported a $40 billion loss in the first quarter of 2025, with most of the decline caused by a drop in the value of US-listed technology companies. Norges Bank also indirectly owned 3,821 BTC through its stock market investments by the end of 2024, presenting a potential sell pressure risk to Bitcoin, especially when considering the socio-political uncertainty and the risk of an economic recession caused by the global trade war.

In such times, could Norges Bank increase its investments in Bitcoin-related companies or even buy spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a way to hedge risk?

For now, it seems unlikely that Norway’s investment fund would consider buying a Bitcoin ETF, especially since the fund does not hold any gold. Besides stocks and bonds, Norges Bank invests in real estate, including retail, industrial, renewable energy, and logistics properties worldwide.

Norway sold all of the central bank’s gold by early 2004, when gold was trading below $400. Since then, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by 280%. Equities now make up 71.4% of the fund’s total investments, so if the global trade war continues, significant losses could occur.

Norges Bank investments generated $222 billion in profits in 2024, and its stock market portfolio dropped by only 1.6% in the first quarter of 2025. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is “mainly index-driven,” according to CEO Nicolai Tangen, specifically following the FTSE Global All Cap Index.

Although this index includes over 7,100 stocks from both developed and emerging markets, it is based on market capitalization, which means 65% of the exposure is to North American companies. But, according to Norges Bank Deputy CEO Trond Grande, there is some flexibility for active investment, and their exposure to US-listed tech stocks has been below the benchmark for the past 18 months.

Some of these holdings, such as Strategy, Mara Holdings, Coinbase, and Riot Platforms, hold large amounts of Bitcoin (BTC) on their balance sheets. As a result, even if not intentional, the sovereign wealth fund had a $356 million indirect exposure to Bitcoin at the end of 2024.

Data shows a 5% hypothetical allocation in Bitcoin back in 2018 would have boosted the fund’s equities benchmark performance by 56%.

Buying Bitcoin ETFs seems unlikely, but indirect exposure remains possible

Technically, it seems unlikely that Norges Bank could buy into the spot Bitcoin ETF without changing the fund’s mandate. However, increasing exposure to companies with significant Bitcoin holdings appears possible. Still, there is no sign of such a move, although Nicolai Tangen stated on April 24 that the fund will increase investments in US stocks.

Related: China may shift from US Treasurys toward gold, crypto — BlackRock exec

The fact that Mubadala Investments, one of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds, held a $437 million stake in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) helps build a case for such investment. Similarly, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board held $321 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, showing the growing use of cryptocurrency as a hedge.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.