Ethereum open interest hits new all-time high — Will ETH price follow?

Ether (ETH) price dropped 6% between March 19 and March 21 after failing to break the $2,050 resistance level. More notably, ETH has fallen 28% since Feb. 21, underperforming the broader crypto market, which declined 14% over the same period.
Despite ETH’s price struggles, Ether futures open interest hit a record high on March 21. This has led traders to question whether large investors are positioning for a potential rally toward $2,400 while also raising concerns about the risks of cascading liquidations due to heightened leverage.
Ether futures aggregate open interest, ETH. Source: CoinGlass
The aggregate open interest in Ether futures rose 15% over two weeks, hitting a record 10.23 million ETH on March 21. Binance, Gate.io, and Bitget collectively dominate 51% of the market, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) holds 9% of ETH open interest, according to CoinGlass data. This contrasts with Bitcoin futures, where CME leads with a 24% market share.
Demand for leveraged ETH longs has declined
The increased activity in ETH futures contracts typically indicates institutional investors’ interest, as open interest measures the demand for leverage. However, buyers (longs) and sellers (shorts) are always matched, so an increase in open interest does not inherently indicate a positive outlook.
To gauge whether buyers are seeking more leverage, analysts should compare ETH futures monthly contract prices to spot exchange rates. In neutral markets, these derivatives typically trade 5% to 10% higher on an annualized basis to account for the extended settlement period. If traders turn bearish, this premium would likely drop below that range.
Ether futures 2-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas
The annualized premium for ETH monthly futures dropped to below 4% on March 21, down from 5% two weeks earlier. This decline in the futures premium suggests reduced incentives for traders to use the “cash and carry” strategy, which involves selling futures contracts while simultaneously buying spot ETH to capture the premium as a fixed-income trade.
Spot ETF outflows and reduced network fees pressure ETH price
Part of Ether’s decline stems from weak demand for US-based Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $307 million in net outflows over the two weeks ending March 20. The macroeconomic environment has also dampened investor confidence, as economists warn of rising recession risks due to global tariff wars, inflationary pressures, and US government spending cuts, according to the Boston Globe.
However, some analysts argue that Ether’s recent price weakness stems from an imbalance between network fees—required to compensate validators—and the interests of decentralized applications (DApps) and layer-2 scaling solutions. This critique was perfectly summarized by Martin Köppelmann, co-founder of Gnosis.
Source: koeppelmann
In a sense, Ethereum’s successful shift to proof-of-stake and the introduction of blob space to enhance scalability through rollups—while significantly boosting the network’s capabilities—are also seen as factors limiting Ether’s price growth. Despite the low transaction costs of its layer-2 solutions, some ETH investors believe they are not being adequately rewarded.
Ether’s price has faced pressure from rising macroeconomic risks, while demand for DApps continues to decline—whether due to increased competition or waning investor interest. Ethereum’s 7-day base layer revenue fell to $605,000 on March 17, a sharp drop from $2.5 million just two weeks earlier.
There is no indication that the surge in ETH futures open interest is driven by bullish positioning. On the contrary, demand for leveraged long positions remains notably weak, suggesting cautious market sentiment.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 104,625.00
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,511.93
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
XRP (XRP) $ 2.13
BNB (BNB) $ 643.46
Solana (SOL) $ 144.40
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999709
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.177256
TRON (TRX) $ 0.270084
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,510.25
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.622092
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 104,605.00
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 40.19
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,013.77
Sui (SUI) $ 2.86
Chainlink (LINK) $ 13.00
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 424.40
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.05
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 18.94
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.255487
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.93
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999598
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000012
WETH (WETH) $ 2,510.53
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,685.56
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.153694
Litecoin (LTC) $ 84.98
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
Monero (XMR) $ 310.47
Polkadot (DOT) $ 3.75
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 39.00
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.52
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 104,630.00
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000011
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.606184
Uniswap (UNI) $ 7.22
Aave (AAVE) $ 271.35
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999484
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.18
Bittensor (TAO) $ 359.48
OKB (OKB) $ 51.37
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.51
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
Aptos (APT) $ 4.44
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.090391
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.20
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 16.61
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) $ 174.66
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.778037
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.06
Tokenize Xchange (TKX) $ 28.47
USD1 (USD1) $ 0.999850
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.636803
Gate (GT) $ 16.90
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 10.00
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.072858
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 4.45
VeChain (VET) $ 0.021885
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.09
Sky (SKY) $ 0.086993
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 105,166.00
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.199121
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.292512
Render (RENDER) $ 3.35
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.664721
Filecoin (FIL) $ 2.42
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.333255
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 0.971432
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 0.998736
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.176548
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 2,510.48
Quant (QNT) $ 103.84
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.998230
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) $ 4.36
USDtb (USDTB) $ 0.999914
KuCoin (KCS) $ 11.18
SPX6900 (SPX) $ 1.38
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 152.76
Flare (FLR) $ 0.018268
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.21
Celestia (TIA) $ 1.79
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.406678
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) $ 1.82
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 2,856.99
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) $ 1.16
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 2,626.86
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000015
Injective (INJ) $ 11.43
Sonic (S) $ 0.336457
Story (IP) $ 3.61
Optimism (OP) $ 0.593658
Polygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) $ 1.00
Binance Bridged USDC (BNB Smart Chain) (USDC) $ 0.999525
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.059919
PayPal USD (PYUSD) $ 0.999913
Stacks (STX) $ 0.623555
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 2,687.26
Sei (SEI) $ 0.174448
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) $ 2,641.69